As the planet heats toward catastrophic temperature levels, a new global movement has been gathering force. It’s the movement that dares question and confront the very root-cause of the climate crisis itself: the production of fossil coal, fossil oil and fossil gas.

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiativeⁱ has become the clearest moral and political challenge to the fossil fuel industry’s decades-long stranglehold on global energy policy and the global economy. Its advocates, following the example of the Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty, urge the world to now come together to end the catastrophic, reckless dominance and expansion of fossil fuels.

A simple, eons-old yet radical, 100% science-backed idea

At its heart, the treaty’s premise is disarmingly simple: we cannot end the climate crisis while continuing to expand fossil fuel production. The Paris Agreement, for all its ambition, focuses on emissions reductions and national targets — yet leaves untouched the drilling rigs, pipelines and coal mines that drive those emissions.

This resulted in the outrageous situation of fossil fuels not being mentioned in COP decisions until COP26 in Glasgow, while they were directly connected to the climate crisis in COP texts in COP28. Of course this proves that COPs, for all the good intentions and efforts of the scientific world and the UN, were still hijacked by fossil-fuel lobbyists flooding the events.

The FFNP Treaty Initiative seeks to close this fatal loophole by tackling fossil fuels at their source.

“The Fossil Fuel Initiative is a global effort to foster international cooperation to accelerate a transition to renewable energy for everyone, end the expansion of coal, oil and gas, and equitably phase out existing production in keeping with what science shows is needed to address the climate crisis. It builds on decades of calls and campaigns for a fossil fuel phase out and fair energy transition by government, civil society, Indigenous, grassroots and other leaders — particularly from the Global South — and aims to complement other movements’ tactics such as divestment, debt relief and fossil fuel bans as well as the work being advanced by the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance and the Power Past Coal Alliance.

While the Paris Agreement set a crucial global climate target, many governments — including self-proclaimed climate leaders — have continued to approve new coal, oil and gas projects even though burning the world’s current fossil fuel reserves would result in seven times more emissions than what is compatible with keeping warming below 1.5ºC.”

The movement is growing

Launched in 2019 by a coalition of civil-society leaders, scientists and climate-vulnerable nations, the movement has grown into a formidable international campaign. Over 130 cities — from London to Lima — and a growing bloc of states including Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Fiji and Colombia have endorsed its call. More than 3,000 scientists, 100 Nobel laureates and institutions such as the World Health Organisation have backed it. In 2024, the first ministerial meeting of endorsing nations took place, laying the groundwork for formal treaty negotiations.

“The Fossil Treaty is not an organisation, it’s an idea — one backed by a growing global network of governments, civil society organisations, academics, scientists, youth activists, health professionals, faith institutions, Indigenous peoples and hundreds of thousands of other citizens globally. Together they have joined a global initiative building momentum and diplomatic support behind this big, bold idea commensurate with the scale of the crisis we face.”

And the fossil fuel alternative is equally simple but eons-old: the best way to reduce emissions is not to produce them in the first place.

Renewables deployment – what would that mean?

The best way to do that is by turning to renewable energy sources, because a 100% renewable energy world is possible, as it is:

~The cheapest long-term energy options, as costs have plummeted and will continue to do so globally.

~The most environmentally friendly and sustainable solution, producing no emissions, no pollution and no hazardous waste.

~The most scientifically sound choice to tackle the triple planetary crises climate, pollution and biodiversity.

~The most universally accessible, as sun, wind and other renewables are available in every region.

~The most peaceful, requiring no extraction conflicts or geopolitical interventions to secure resources.

~The least dangerous, posing no risk of oil spills, nuclear accidents or toxic emissions.

~An inexhaustible source of energy, drawing from natural flows that regenerate continuously.

~An inexhaustible, abundant and democratic energy solution, available to all.

A massive renewables deployment, with electrification of cooling, heating and transport sectors where applicable, with energy savings and efficiency improvements and energy storage are the only energy transition pathways aligned with the principle of “people and planet above profit”, supporting social equity, climate justice and ecological survival.

Embracing 100% renewables is no longer a matter of technology or cost—it is a matter of survival, political will and moral responsibility.

However, in a fossil fuel run world, this is easier said than done.

The David and Goliath Battle

Behind the lofty rhetoric of climate summits lies a brutal reality: the fossil fuel industry remains the most powerful lobby on Earth. In 2023, global fossil fuel subsidies hit a record $7 trillion (7% of global GDP), and the world’s biggest oil and gas firms posted staggering profits while millions faced climate-driven floods, droughts, and heatwaves.

The fossil fuel industry has been protected from the very beginning by the ingenuity of the “external cost” trick, which, combined with the non-application of the “polluter pays” principle, made fossil fuels appear cheap. These costs are still paid by us, but they don’t appear in the fossil fuel bills.

Apart from fossil fuel subsidies, the external cost of fossil fuels is the actual cost of the process of production which is not incorporated in the selling price of fossil fuels, and this includes:

~Environmental fossil fuel pollution of air, land, rivers, and seas along the whole chain of utilisation: drilling/mining, transport, storage, burning.

~Fossil-fuel-caused public health damage: External costs from public health damage include the premature death of more than 7 million people annually around the world. Fossil fuel pollution also causes significant health issues globally, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and neurological disorders, resulting, besides millions of premature deaths annually, in substantial economic costs for healthcare and lost productivity, particularly affecting low- and middle-income countries.

~Fossil-fuel-caused climate disasters: Globally, fossil fuel-related climate disasters have incurred trillions of dollars in economic losses, with recent annual costs reaching hundreds of billions. Direct damages from events like extreme weather are in the hundreds of billions each year, but when cascading and indirect costs like supply chain disruptions, health impacts, and ecosystem damage are included, the total is estimated to be as high as $2 trillion annually. For example, the top 10 climate disasters in 2024 alone caused over $229 billion in damage.

The battle has started from the bottom up

It is indeed a David and Goliath battle, but the Fossil Fuel Treaty movement is confronting that power head-on. Its leaders — from Pacific Island diplomats to grassroots activists — know that they are taking on entrenched corporate and political interests that have spent decades sowing doubt, delay and denial. The industry’s influence reaches deep into governments and financial institutions, where the promise of short-term profit continues to outweigh the warnings of scientists and frontline communities.

And now, as climate denial regains political oxygen in parts of the world, the challenge grows steeper. Donald Trump, who famously declared that climate change is a hoax, has once again aligned himself with fossil fuel interests, vowing to “drill, baby, drill” and undo hard-won climate policies. His rhetoric emboldens those who profit from the planet’s destruction — and underscores precisely why a global agreement on fossil fuels is needed.

What sets the Treaty Initiative apart is its insistence on justice. It doesn’t merely call for production cuts — it calls for a just and equitable transition that supports workers, communities and nations reliant on fossil fuels. It acknowledges that those least responsible for the crisis — from low-lying islands to drought-stricken African regions — are already paying the highest price.

Three core pillars

By proposing three core pillars — non-proliferation of new fossil fuel projects, a fair phase-out of existing production, and a just transition for all — the Treaty creates a moral and political framework that could anchor global climate policy in equity rather than inertia.

In recent years, the Treaty has moved from the periphery of climate activism toward the diplomatic mainstream. Pacific nations have championed it as a matter of survival. The European Parliament has endorsed it. Networks of progressive financial institutions, including members of the Global Alliance for Banking on Values, have joined in. And a diverse coalition of health, faith and Indigenous groups have rallied around the call for a fossil-free future. At COP29 and now at COP30, the treaty’s message has cut through the greenwashing that so often dominates global climate gatherings: the era of fossil fuel expansion must end.

The road to an actual treaty will be long and contested. Major fossil fuel producers have yet to join the discussion, and political resistance remains fierce. But the very existence of the Initiative has already shifted the narrative: what was once unspeakable is now at the center of global debate.

As 2025 ends with COP30 ongoing, the demand for a formal negotiating mandate at the United Nations is coming loud and clear. If achieved, it would mark the first time the world formally agrees to confront the supply side of the fossil fuel crisis — a historic step toward aligning international law with planetary limits.

Making the last stand

In an era of climate backsliding, misinformation, and resurgent denial, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative represents more than a policy proposal; it’s our last stand.

As CO₂ emissions keep growing every year and the temperature redlines are crossed, the only realistic question is how many decades and what level of temperature overshoot humanity will have to endure, because a tiny yet powerful percentage of humans sets their profits above all the rest of us.

The struggle is far from over, and the opponents are powerful. But from the atolls of the Pacific to the corridors of the European Parliament, a new global conscience is taking shape — one that refuses to accept that destruction is inevitable.

If the world is to avert the worst of the climate crisis, this is the treaty that will save the day for the next generations.

This article, first published on ESI Africa, was written by Prof. Ioannis Tsipouridis, a Senior Research Fellow at Strathmore University and a Renewable Energy Consultant Engineer and Climate Action Advocate