Kenya races towards a future brimming with people and opportunity. But this very progress hangs in the balance, choked by the fumes of a transport system on the brink. Can Kenya achieve economic lift-off without succumbing to climate catastrophe?

At the forefront of this critical issue, researchers Ignatius Maranga, Dominic Kemei, Thomas Bundi, and Patrick Mwanzia from the Strathmore Energy Research Centre have made significant strides in balancing development with climate goals in Kenya. Their paper, ‘How can emerging economies meet development and climate goals in the transport-energy system? Modelling co-developed scenarios in Kenya using a socio-technical approach,’ published alongside 18 fellow researchers on Science Direct, addresses the complex challenges faced by low- and middle-income countries in adopting clean transport technologies.

According to the paper, Kenya’s transport-energy system is at a crossroads. Rapid urban migration, population growth, and a burgeoning middle class are driving an increasing demand for both passenger and freight transport. Despite the country’s minimal historical responsibility for climate change, with greenhouse gas emissions representing a mere 0.05% of the global total, the need for sustainable solutions is urgent. Transport emissions across Africa have surged by 84% between 2010 and 2016, underscoring the critical importance of sustainable development in this sector.

The researchers engaged 41 local experts and decision-makers to co-develop narrative scenarios for Kenya’s transport-energy future. The result is a strategic decision-support tool, Transport Energy Air Pollution Model (TEAM-Kenya), which integrates these scenarios to aid policymakers at regional, national, and international levels. This tool is pivotal in crafting policies and investment strategies that promote low-carbon economic growth while ensuring equitable access to clean transportation.

Schematic summarising scenario development process used in workshop/Picture Courtesy

The study presents a compelling case for the dual pursuit of development and climate goals in Kenya’s transport-energy system. Key findings include: –

~Public Transport and Electrification: Strong policy support for efficient public transport and the electrification of road vehicles is crucial. Non-motorised transport, such as walking and cycling, must also be promoted to ensure equitable access to services and economic opportunities.

~Electricity Demand: Favorable scenarios anticipate substantial adoption of e-mobility, potentially increasing Kenya’s electricity demand by 5%–56% from 2023 to 2040. This represents a significant 2.7–3.9 times increase in total electricity demand compared to current levels.

~Fiscal Impact: High e-mobility scenarios could reduce taxation revenues from transport fuels by up to 41% but also significantly cut the fuel import bill by up to 69%, saving up to $4.2 billion annually by 2050.

~Emissions and Public Health: The adoption of e-mobility and improved public transport can lower greenhouse gas emissions and reduce harmful air pollution, particularly in urban areas like Nairobi.

The research also underscores the potential for Kenya’s transport-energy system to evolve in a climate-compatible manner, expanding passenger and freight services while maintaining acceptable emissions levels. To achieve this, strong policies supporting public transport and vehicle electrification are essential. The study likewise highlights the need for international development finance to support the infrastructure required for this transition.

The scenarios developed in this project will serve as a foundation for drafting specific policies for Kenya’s transport sector. Strathmore University and the Africa E-mobility Alliance (AFEMA) will maintain and promote TEAM-Kenya, ensuring its adaptation across sub-Saharan Africa.

This pioneering work by these researchers provide a roadmap for Kenya and other emerging economies to navigate the complex interplay between development and climate goals. These economies can lead the way in green growth, forging a path towards cleaner air and economic prosperity. As the world grapples with the climate crisis, such innovative approaches are crucial for securing a sustainable and equitable future for all.

Article written by Stephen Wakhu