In our annual power and energy Prognosis & Predictions feature, the renewable energy consultant, engineer, and professor evaluates what happened in 2025 and what to look out for in 2026.

Prognosis for 2025

2025 was the year expected by the climate movement to provide the big breakthrough, culminating in real climate finance for real climate action and zero hot air speeches about “ambitions”, “promises” and “commitments”.

I have been in the energy and climate space (in that order) for over 45 years and I hope I am allowed to believe that the conditions were ripe for such a development.

The weight of the available scientific evidence, supported by practically 100% of esteemed scientists, the almost daily occurrence of major Fast-Onset Climate Disasters (flash floods, wildfires, storms) and evidence of major Slow-Onset Climate Disasters (drought, sea level rise, heatwaves), leaves no room for a normal citizen to call climate change a hoax.

So almost everyone was expecting a sign that humanity would stop moving in the wrong direction.

Unfortunately, there is always an X factor that eludes the prognosis. With hindsight, I believe we could have predicted that one.

I’m referring, of course, to the election of Donald J Trump to the USA presidency. His presence and unchecked power have added so much weight in favor of fossil fuels, that tipped the balance and as a result in 2025 we witnessed the resurrection of fossil fuels.

Predictions for 2026

Unfortunately, for 2026, I predict much of the same.

I believe Trump and the fossil fuel lobby know that they cannot keep pushing the dirty energy agenda for very long, while disasters are compounding and people are paying the price. So, I believe they will pursue to realise a front-heavy programme of new fossil fuel explorations, in nations which, on the one hand, have fossil fuel resources and on the other, the level of their national poverty dictates – wrongly – a compromise with their and everybody else’s future.

The inescapable fact remains that reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and reducing the concentration of CO₂ already in the atmosphere is dangerously time-related. More than we consider.

The overshoot of 1.5°C, is a given. The only unknown questions are how far the overshoot will go, temperature-wise and time-wise.

And that will define the duration and extent of the hellish conditions that the next generations will live in. Because of our inaction and indecision.

This is my prognosis.

This article, first published on ESI Africa, was written by Prof. Ioannis Tsipouridis, a Senior Research Fellow at Strathmore University and a Renewable Energy Consultant Engineer and Climate Action Advocate