With Africa’s share of world agricultural exports in steady decline, Prof. Lilac Nachum, a Visiting Professor at Strathmore Business School, calls for bold policies that unlock the continent’s natural advantages, shift from raw exports to value-added trade, and place agribusiness at the heart of Africa’s economic future.

In her recently published paper, ‘The Export Performance of Africa’s Agribusiness Sector: A Policy Agenda for Change’, Prof. Nachum seeks to challenge the prevailing manufacturing-centric paradigm and make the case for an agriculture-led export strategy, grounded in Africa’s unique endowments and the urgent need for sustainable growth. She begins by establishing the basis for her belief in the potential of Africa’s agribusiness sector to champion Africa’s global integration, based on the principle of comparative advantage.

Picture a farmer, let us call her Wanjiku, making her routine walk through her avocado orchard. The fruit is nearly ready for harvest, yet her concerns have little to do with weather or soil. What weighs on her mind is how much of her crop would end up sold at low prices to middlemen, rather than reaching higher-value export markets abroad. Without formal land titles, she cannot use her farm as collateral to access affordable credit. Without clear and consistent export policies, she faces unpredictable costs and barriers that make scaling nearly impossible. For Wanjiku, the promise of international trade feels distant, even though her land produces the kind of fruit global markets demand.

Her story reflects a wider reality. Africa holds more than half of the world’s uncultivated arable land and enjoys weather conditions suited for producing most of the world’s staple crops. Agribusiness forms the backbone of the continent’s economy, contributing about 35% of GDP and employing over 60% of its people. Yet Africa’s share of global agricultural exports has been shrinking over time. In the 1960s, the continent accounted for nearly 8% of world agricultural exports. Today, that share has fallen to less than 4%. This paradox, abundant natural advantage paired with poor export performance, sits at the heart of Africa’s development challenge.

It is within this context that Prof. Nachum presents her paper. Her analysis challenges the long-standing focus on industrialization as the primary path to global integration and argues for an agriculture-led export strategy, tailored to Africa’s unique circumstances.

Prof. Nachum lays out a policy agenda that addresses both domestic and cross-border barriers. At the domestic level, she highlights the importance of improving access to finance and reforming land administration systems to enable investment and scale. At the regional and global level, she points to the need for more targeted trade policies that encourage value addition, create incentives for processing rather than raw exports, and adapt strategies to different crops and markets.

These strategies, she suggests, must be carefully tailored to different crops and markets, ensuring that Africa leverages its comparative advantages while capturing greater value along the agricultural chain.

By weaving together examples from across the continent, such as Kenya’s avocado exports, Ethiopia’s flower industry, and Senegal’s investment in transport infrastructure, Prof. Nachum demonstrates that change is possible when governments, firms, and policymakers align their efforts.

Wanjiku’s experience thus becomes a window into the larger question this paper raises. How can Africa convert its natural advantages into real export gains? Prof. Nachum’s work offers a framework for answering that question, and for rethinking the role of agribusiness in Africa’s economic future.

As she notes, the challenge lies in pursuing a growth model with few historical precedents. But perhaps Africa’s path must be different, rooted in its land, its people, and its unique strengths.

Read the full paper here.

Article written by Stephen Wakhu.