For those who may not know, canaries were used from 1911 to 1986 in British coal mines as an early warning system for poisonous gases, such as carbon monoxide, because they are extremely sensitive and fainted before the gases became deadly to workers.

The first ever early warning system, probably.

Is there an equivalent canary for the climate crisis? Does it work? Of course, there is. But before I tell you what it is, I would like to mention the real climate crisis canary, the timeless early warning system that has been warning us for decades: Scientists.

This amazing group of people who watch closely climate developments, better equipped than anyone else, who see the climate disasters rushing towards us, ever faster and increasingly more threatening, who see their scientific forecasts, analyses and findings confirmed time and again. And yet, instead of dramatic pleas and scary calls, they maintain their scientific integrity and control and simply announce that this or the other climate disaster became X% more likely due to the climate crisis. They do not resort to sweeping statements, they never generalise and remain faithful and respectful of their science.

In contrast to this exceptional group of humans, there are those who, in complete ignorance of science, but with the power that their position yields and the amplification of this power by friendly media and an even friendlier market place, reject the very existence of climate change and ridicule the solutions that are proposed, such as renewable energy sources, influencing a large percentage of social and news media followers, away from the scientific truth.

What does the evidence say?

Fortunately for us, there is one notable exception, which rises from among their ranks and speaks the climate truth. A professional business sector that cannot ignore climate reality, because if it does, it will sign its own death penalty: the canary of the climate crisis is the insurance industry.

Here is what I found on internet: The insurance industry is facing the climate crisis as an existential threat. Companies are drastically adjusting prices, limiting coverage in high-risk areas and changing their investment portfolios to avoid catastrophic losses.

The response to this new reality is based on:

~Changing computational models: The historical data that has been used for decades is no longer sufficient. The new climate conditions demand different approach and treatment. Insurance companies are using advanced forecasting models and satellite data to assess the real and worsening risk.

~Premium Increases & Coverage Limitations: Insurers are adjusting tariffs and are now considering stopping coverage in areas that are no longer considered insurable due to the frequency and severity of extreme events.

They also confess the existence of an increasing Insurance Protection Gap: A large part of the financial losses from natural disasters remains uninsured, burdening individuals, businesses and states.

In addition, the industry is shifting its investment portfolios towards renewable energy sources, while at the same time being very reluctant to outright refusing to insure new fossil fuel projects that accelerate global warming.

Has the world turned upside down?

It’s as if I’m reading a Greenpeace document.

The insurance industry is forced to take the climate crisis more seriously than any other sector of the economy, because ignoring it will mean its financial collapse. For insurance companies, climate change is not a non-existent or even a distant future problem, but an immediate threat to their very survival, as compensation from natural disasters threatens to lead them to bankruptcy.

Currently, it’s like insuring a tanker attempting to pass the Straits of Hormuz. It is so real and so direct. In other words… words are cheap, when they don’t burden you, literally and figuratively.

But when you have to put your money where your mouth is, then you begin to think twice before you open your mouth and you think a few more times, before you open your wallet. So, could the insurance industry’s professional behaviour show a “saving the future” pathway for all the rest? Of course!

By acting like the proverbial “canary in the mine”, the industry sends a clear message of very high risk to all other sectors of the economy (banks, manufacturers, investors…) and could thus affect their investment choices to become greener and really sustainable

After all, the insurance industry has been for long considered reliable in its forecasts, because it always employed top scientists, and it still does, and invests in climate modeling and forecasting technologies.

Facing reality

Unfortunately, however, for us, life does not move in a straight line.

The forces that influence decision-making do not always operate with respect to rules that make sense, but rather serve short-term goals, which more often than not, move in the opposite direction.

The result of this process can be observed daily on our television screens, which for all intends and purposes is the world stage, where we are witnesses to clashes for control of one or another resource of “great geopolitical strategic importance”.

The only resource that has absolutely no strategic importance is human life.

And what of climate change?

Well, we shed a tear for the 2,700 people who died prematurely in Junealone, from the European heatwaves and, of course, a few more tears for the victims of the forest fires in Spain, but then we had to concentrate on the World Cup final, so we missed that wild fires are burning houses in Norway, that Arthur’s Seat is burning in Edinburgh and that Canada is fighting 800 wild fires out of control…

But, no worries, this week has more of the same as a new heatwave is engulfing Europe,temperatures soaring above 40^°C, all the countries helplessly fighting wildfires…

Come on now, August is upon us and people want to have a care free holiday, let go of climate issues… Just let’s kick the climate can down the road and everything will be fine.

This article, first published on ESI Africa, was written by Prof. Ioannis Tsipouridis, a Senior Research Fellow at Strathmore University and a Renewable Energy Consultant Engineer and Climate Action Advocate